Estonia Blames Russian Spies for Milrem Arson Attack

Estonia accused Russia’s special services on Tuesday of ordering an arson attack on a Tallinn building used by defense technology firm Milrem Robotics, a rare public attribution that sharply escalates the Baltic state’s confrontation with Moscow and drew immediate solidarity from NATO allies.

“Today, we can state with full confidence that the arson attack on Milrem in Estonia on the night of 15 August was an act of sabotage commissioned by the special services of the Russian Federation,” Prime Minister Kristen Michal said in a government statement. The Estonian Internal Security Service (KAPO) reached the conclusion after what the government described as a thorough assessment of the intelligence it had gathered.

The Kremlin rejected the accusation, calling it “baseless, ill-considered [and having] absolutely no relation to reality,” according to comments from spokesperson Dmitry Peskov carried by The Guardian’s Europe live blog.

What Happened

On the night of 15 August, a fire broke out in a building used by Milrem Robotics on Betooni Street in Tallinn’s Lasnamäe district. Emergency services responded immediately and quickly brought the blaze under control; no lives were in danger. At the time, officials said little about what caused it.

Investigators soon focused on arson. Two Latvian citizens suspected of carrying out the attack were detained in Latvia on 17 August, with a third detained the following day. Searches of locations linked to the suspects in Latvia yielded numerous data storage devices and items that may have been used to set the fire, according to ERR News, the English-language service of Estonian Public Broadcasting. On 17–18 September, Latvia handed all three suspects over to Estonia, where they were remanded in custody.

The Estonian government said the criminal investigation into the exact circumstances is continuing, but that preliminary information gathered in the proceedings also indicates the attack was commissioned. The suspects believed to have directly carried out the arson “have been apprehended and taken into custody and no longer pose a threat.”

Why Milrem Matters

Milrem Robotics, founded in 2013, is one of Estonia’s flagship defense-technology companies and a world leader in unmanned ground vehicles. In cooperation with European Union countries, it supplies the THeMIS unmanned ground vehicle to Ukraine—making it precisely the kind of target that, according to Estonian intelligence, Russian services have increasingly prioritized.

KAPO’s director general, Margo Palloson, said the Milrem arson was the first successful attack in Estonia this year carried out on the orders of Russian special services, and that the agency had foiled the vast majority of similar plots. “They constantly plan, look for opportunities, try to find people who would carry out attacks,” Palloson told ERR. “Our job is to thwart these plans at a very early stage.”

Palloson said the pool of recruits Russian services seek to use is broad: members of Estonia’s Russian-speaking community, people from criminal circles, and, as in the Milrem case, foreign nationals. He cited the previous year’s arson of the “Slava Ukraini” restaurant in Estonia, whose perpetrators were recruited from Moldova. The motive, he said, is usually money—and recruits are often used “blindly,” never told that they are working for Russian special services.

A Wider Campaign

Estonia framed the attack as part of a broader Russian campaign of sabotage and intimidation across Europe, aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine and reducing pressure on Moscow.

“Such activity is absolutely unacceptable and irresponsible,” Michal said, adding that it “demonstrates Moscow’s growing desperation” after failing to achieve its objectives in Ukraine. “Russia will not intimidate us or change our policies through such actions.”

Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said Estonia’s response would be the opposite of what Russia seeks: tighter sanctions, further restrictions on Russian citizens’ travel to Europe, and continued support for Ukraine. Estonia’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires to demand an explanation.

In a statement shared with the Kyiv Independent, Tsahkna said several similar acts of sabotage had been prevented and that the perpetrators of the Milrem attack “no longer pose a threat to Estonia.” He added that “Estonia and its Allies retain the full right to respond to this kind of hostile, irresponsible, and dangerous activity.”

KAPO said in its own assessment that the modus operandi of the Milrem attack was “consistent with other acts of sabotage carried out in Europe on behalf of Russia,” and that the agency assesses it is “directly attributable to the Russian Federation.” Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, KAPO and its partners have identified and apprehended more than 20 individuals involved in kinetic attacks carried out on behalf of Russian security services.

Allies Rally Behind Tallinn

The attribution triggered rapid support from across NATO. Sweden’s caretaker prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, called the finding “extremely serious,” saying “this pattern of attacks is directed against Europe as a whole.” Lithuania’s foreign minister, Kęstutis Budrys, declared that “Russia’s fingerprints are all over” the case and that “the political responsibility leads to Moscow.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking at a press conference with Lithuania’s prime minister, warned that Russia “continues its reckless campaign of hostile actions against NATO allies” but said Moscow is “failing.” He praised Estonia’s public attribution. “Our message to Moscow is clear: we will do even more for Ukraine and not less,” Rutte said.

General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s top commander, told EU lawmakers that the goal of Russian activity is “primarily to break our will to continue supporting Ukraine,” arguing that publicly reinforcing support for Kyiv is the best counter to Moscow’s strategy.

The Milrem case follows a string of hybrid incidents across Europe. Germany accused Moscow of orchestrating an attempted drone attack on Leipzig Airport in August, and drone sightings disrupted air traffic at Berlin Brandenburg and Luxembourg airports in September. NATO jets shot down a drone over Lithuania two weeks ago. Analysts have warned that such attacks risk causing casualties and miscalculation.

What’s Next

Estonia’s attribution is a deliberate act of public accountability designed to impose costs on Russia—and it places the Milrem case squarely within NATO’s emerging doctrine of “naming and shaming” hybrid aggression. The suspects remain in custody as the criminal investigation continues, and prosecutors have indicated charges may evolve from property destruction toward sabotage-related offenses as evidence is gathered.

Moscow’s blanket denial means the case will likely rest on intelligence assessments rather than evidence that can be independently verified in open sources. For Estonia, however, the message is aimed as much at its own public and its allies as at the Kremlin: that such operations will not go unanswered, and that support for Ukraine remains firm. What to watch next is whether allied capitals translate solidarity into concrete measures—and whether Russia’s sabotage campaign, which KAPO says will remain a high threat “in the coming years,” escalates further.