Two Cold Fronts to Hit China as Holiday Begins
Two successive cold fronts will sweep across China during the week-long National Day holiday, pushing temperatures in much of the country to new lows for the second half of the year while persistent rain raises the risk of landslides and flash floods in the southwest, the Central Meteorological Observatory (CMO) forecasts.
The first front, described as the strongest of the year’s second half, was already affecting China on September 30, and is set to continue east and south on October 1 — the holiday’s opening day. A second front is expected to arrive from October 3 to 4.
Widespread Cooling, New Seasonal Lows
On September 30, northern Qinghai, central-eastern Gansu, Ningxia, northern Shaanxi, south-central North China and eastern Northeast China saw temperatures fall 6-10°C, with local drops of 12-16°C, according to The Paper, which republished the CMO’s forecast.
As the first front continues to move east and south on October 1, the Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and central-northern South China regions are expected to see temperature drops of 4-8°C, reaching about 10°C locally. Northern temperatures, meanwhile, will begin to rebound.
The second front, arriving October 3-4, will bring further fluctuations to the north. Parts of the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region and northern North China may cool by 8-10°C, accompanied by level 4-6 northerly winds with gusts of level 7-8.
According to the forecast, major cities including Harbin, Changchun, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuhan and Hangzhou are expected to post new daily maximum-temperature lows for the second half of the year. Minimum temperatures will also hit new lows across a wide area; Wuhan and Nanjing could see overnight lows of just 10-11°C by October 6. As temperatures slide, many parts of the Jiangnan region may enter autumn during the holiday.
Persistent Rain in the Southwest
Before October 5, the convergence of cold and warm air masses is expected to expand rainfall across the south. The southwest faces prolonged rain and overcast conditions, while parts of Jiangnan and South China could see severe convective weather.
For October 1, the CMO forecast moderate-to-heavy rain across southern Shaanxi, northern and southeastern Chongqing, western Hubei, western Hunan, Guizhou, eastern Yunnan, northwestern Guangxi, and parts of eastern and southern Guangdong, southern Zhejiang and Fujian. Heavy rain of 50-100mm is expected in eastern and southern Guizhou, northwestern Guangxi, southeastern and central Guangdong, southern Zhejiang and western Fujian, with localized torrential rain of 100-150mm in northern Guizhou and western Hunan.
A separate bulletin reported by NetEase / Taizhou Traffic Radio confirmed the same window, warning of short-duration heavy rainfall with hourly rates of 20-40mm, locally exceeding 60mm, and possible thunderstorm gales or hail in northwestern Sichuan and southwestern Guizhou.
From October 2 to 4, an upper-level trough moving east will bring a west-to-east precipitation process to North and Northeast China.
Warnings Issued for Hazard Risks
The CMO, working with the Ministry of Natural Resources, issued a yellow geological hazard meteorological risk warning for western Hubei, northeastern Chongqing and northeastern Guizhou, flagging a higher risk of geological disasters in those areas.
Together with the Ministry of Water Resources, the CMO also issued a yellow flash flood warning, indicating a possible risk of flash floods in southwestern Hubei, western Hunan, eastern Chongqing and northeastern Guizhou, with a higher probability in western Hunan and northeastern Guizhou. A blue gale warning was issued for central-eastern Inner Mongolia, most of Heilongjiang and Jilin, northern Hebei and parts of the Tibetan Plateau.
“In the first half of the National Day holiday, southern rainfall covers a wide area, and some southwestern areas have prolonged rain — be vigilant against secondary disasters such as landslides and mudflows that persistent rain may trigger,” the CMO warned, according to The Paper.
Why It Matters
The timing is significant. The National Day holiday, running October 1-7, is one of China’s peak travel periods — the so-called “Golden Week” — making the forecast highly consequential for transport, tourism and public safety.
The southwestern rain is tied to the recurring “West China autumn rain” pattern, which brings prolonged autumn rainfall to the Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, Guizhou and surrounding areas. This year the phenomenon arrived late but has been notably intense; in late September, local hourly rainfall in Kaizhou, Chongqing, and Dazhou, Sichuan, exceeded 70mm/hr — characteristic of main-flood-season intensity. The combination of mountainous terrain and sustained rainfall underpins the elevated landslide and mudflow risk behind the official warnings.
Tourists and residents in affected regions are advised to add clothing against the sharp temperature swings, carry rain gear, drive cautiously, and monitor warning updates in areas flagged for geological and flood hazards.
What to Watch For
Forecasters expect southern rainfall to taper after October 5, with the first half of the holiday seeing the widest coverage. A weaker cold front is expected to continue affecting the holiday through October 5-7. Travelers should watch for updated warnings as the second front approaches and temperatures settle into autumn across the Jiangnan region.