Pacific Moisture Soaks Central US as Hurricane Rachel Forms

A broad surge of tropical Pacific moisture soaked the central United States this week while forecasters announced yet another hurricane forming off Mexico’s coast, as a strengthening El Nino continued to supercharge storm activity across the ocean basin.

Hurricane Rachel, the newest system, was spinning far offshore and posed no threat to land, but its emergence underscored a Pacific season that has repeatedly sent tropical remnants streaming into the U.S. Southwest. Meanwhile, parts of New Mexico that had withered through months of drought were instead coping with floodwaters that forced evacuations, threatened a dam, and endangered the state’s iconic chile harvest.

A New Storm in a Busy Pacific

Rachel formed Wednesday off Mexico’s western coast, becoming the basin’s 20th named storm and 10th hurricane of the 2026 season, according to NBC News, citing the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. The storm was expected to develop rapidly and could reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds topping 111 mph (178 kph).

As of the latest advisory, Rachel’s maximum sustained winds were around 90 mph (150 kph), and it was located about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving northwest at 7 mph (11 kph). Forecasters expected it to curve west and away from the mainland, passing south of the Baja California peninsula.

The Mexican government discontinued all coastal watches and warnings, but warned of isolated rainfall totals up to 12 inches (30 cm) and heavy surf along the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states. In Jalisco, schools were closed in 30 municipalities as a precaution, and authorities remained on alert across the region.

Drought Turns to Deluge in New Mexico

The moisture drenching the central U.S. was the remnant of earlier tropical systems, including Hurricane Polo, a Category 3 storm that made landfall overnight Monday on the Baja California peninsula and then farther inland. Polo ranked as the second-most intense Eastern Pacific hurricane on record.

The contrast in New Mexico was stark. The state had endured months of drought that dried up reservoirs and even drove hungry bears into neighborhoods in search of food. Wednesday marked the end of the second-wettest month ever recorded in Albuquerque, with National Weather Service records dating back to the 1800s. The Rio Grande, which had run dry along a long stretch of the state, was overflowing.

The heaviest drama unfolded in southern New Mexico’s Dona Ana County, where the McLeod Dam near Garfield came close to failing Tuesday. An emergency alert warned of a life-threatening situation due to the dam’s imminent failure.

According to KRWG, the National Inventory of Dams showed the McLeod Dam’s last inspection, in 2023, rated it in poor condition with a high potential hazard classification and no emergency action plan in place. Dona Ana County issued evacuation orders for Garfield and Salem, later extending them to Rincon, Hatch and Placitas.

New Mexico State Rep. Nathan Small, who was at an evacuation point at the Radium Springs Community Resource Center, described water coming over the top of flood-control facilities. “There is flooding in the village of Hatch, and so folks are being asked to [leave] in specific areas, and I think that everyone needs to be on a higher state of awareness and caution right now,” Small said.

The Santa Fe New Mexican reported that resident Alessandra Alanis watched floodwaters pour through, out and over the earthen dam near the farmland where her family grows pecan trees. “We’ve been praying and praying and praying for rain,” Alanis said. “I just don’t think anyone expected everyone’s prayers to be answered all at once on one day.”

Evacuation orders for four of the five communities were lifted late Tuesday as storms passed, but Rincon remained under evacuation because of standing floodwater. Most of the roughly 100 people who sought refuge in the chile-growing county were headed home Wednesday.

Acting Gov. Howie Morales declared a state of emergency, making $3.75 million available through local governments to help affected residents with temporary housing, healthcare, food and transportation.

A Harvest Under Threat

The flooding also dealt a fresh blow to New Mexico’s famous chile crop at the height of harvest season. The New Mexico Chile Association had already warned in mid-September of supply shortfalls ranging from roughly 20% to 50%, blaming unusually warm nighttime temperatures and prolonged adverse growing conditions.

Preston Mitchell, a Hatch Chile Association board member, told NBC News that the rain now threatened to rot red chiles still in the fields. “There will be nobody picking chile for at least five or six days,” Mitchell said. “All these growers whose fields were flooded, everything’s toast. Everything that’s out there is done.”

A Record El Nino in the Driver’s Seat

The stormy pattern is consistent with an El Nino year of above-average Pacific activity. In its September update, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong El Nino during the fall and winter at more than 90%, with a 75% chance that the key three-month index would exceed +2.5C — a threshold that would make this the strongest El Nino since records began in 1950.

El Nino is credited with supercharging the Pacific while suppressing Atlantic activity. In the central Pacific, Tropical Storm Nolo — formerly a hurricane — threatened dangerous conditions near the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument and drenched parts of Hawaii’s Big Island over the weekend with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (85 kph).

What to Watch

With the El Nino expected to strengthen further through the end of the year, forecasters will be watching for more tropical moisture streaming onshore and for continued flooding risk across the Southwest. The condition of aging infrastructure like the McLeod Dam — rated poor three years ago with no emergency plan — is likely to face renewed scrutiny after this week’s close call. For New Mexico’s growers, the immediate question is how much of an already-reduced chile crop survives the waterlogged fields.