Ohio Senate Race Tests Democrats’ Blue-Collar Comeback
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance this November, and Ohio’s special Senate election has become a marquee test of whether Democrats can rebuild the blue-collar coalition that has drifted toward Republicans over the past decade. Former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a political comeback against Republican appointee Sen. Jon Husted, and he is leaning heavily on organized labor to make his case.
Speaking at the biennial gathering of the Ohio AFL-CIO, Brown implored union members to carry his message door to door. “I want you to talk to people, because people will listen to you,” he said, according to NPR. “Tell them how important this election is, and how important it is that they get out and vote.”
A Pivotal Contest
The special election, set for Nov. 3, will fill the remainder of the term won in 2022 by JD Vance, who resigned in 2025 to become vice president. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed then-Lt. Gov. Husted to the seat early last year. It is the first U.S. Senate special election in Ohio since 1954, and the seat is up again for a full term in 2028, according to Wikipedia.
Brown, who served in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, lost his seat to Republican businessman Bernie Moreno by slightly more than 3.5 points in 2024 — a year in which President Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 points. The race against Husted remains a toss-up that could determine Senate control for Trump’s final two years in office.
Ohio has trended steadily from swing state to a moderate-to-strong red state. Republicans hold every statewide office, both legislative chambers, both Senate seats and a 10-5 edge in the House delegation.
Courting Workers Who Left the Fold
The Democratic pitch rests on the premise that working-class voters can be won back with a direct economic message. In 2016, Trump won 54% of Ohio union households while Hillary Clinton won just 41%, according to NPR. By 2024, nearly half of Ohio’s union households backed Trump.
Dave Janiszewski, a 72-year-old retiree who split his career between a steel plant and a paper plant, is among those canvassing middle-class neighborhoods around Columbus. “I’ve personally met him, know him — I’ve been around him since 2012,” Janiszewski said of Brown. “He’s always been there for working people.”
Brown’s record includes pushing through the 2021 Butch Lewis Act, which rescued the pensions of millions of union workers from insolvency, and, weeks after his 2024 defeat, helping pass the Social Security Fairness Act with Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins. That law restored full benefits to millions of public employees; Brown cites it as proof of delivery for the state’s unionized teachers, local government workers and retirees.
A Split Within Labor
Ohio’s union movement is not monolithic. While major organizations — including the Ohio AFL-CIO, the Teamsters and the United Steelworkers — have endorsed Brown, several building trades councils have crossed party lines to back Husted.
The Cleveland and Toledo building trades councils and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers have endorsed the Republican incumbent. Husted frames his support as rooted in Ohio rather than Washington. “Businesses have to succeed for labor to succeed,” he told the Washington Examiner. “They know they can count on me. They can trust me, that I have worked with both business and labor… we don’t have to fight over the pie like Sherrod Brown wants to do, that we can grow the pie.”
Democrats reject that framing. Austin Keyser, a vice president of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, argued that Husted “has cut taxes for corporations and made it more profitable than ever to ship American jobs overseas,” adding that Ohio “needs a senator who will stand up for its workers, not bow down to billionaires.”
John Plecnik, a Republican commissioner in Lake County — one of eight Ohio counties that abandoned Brown in 2024 — predicted union members will side with Husted because of his alignment with Trump. “People aren’t stupid,” Plecnik said. “They know that the borders were wide open during President Biden’s term, and it was hurting labor. It was hurting salaries. Now that we see strong border security, you’re starting to see salaries tick back up again.”
Money and the Air War
Brown entered the fall with a fundraising advantage, raising more than twice as much as Husted in the second quarter of 2026 — $14.1 million in direct donations to Husted’s $3.4 million, according to the Ohio Capital Journal. But Republicans have answered with a flood of outside money. Outside groups have committed more than $174 million to the race, and AdImpact projects total spending could reach $749 million by Election Day — a figure that reflects the post-Citizens United era of expanded coordinated party spending.
The two campaigns have also clashed over data centers, which have become politically toxic in Ohio as residents worry about energy costs and grid strain. Brown has run a series of ads casting Husted as “the face of data centers,” criticizing tax breaks the senator championed as lieutenant governor. Husted defends his role in attracting the projects, touting the jobs and investment they bring.
What the Polls Show
A BIG DATA POLL “Buckeye State Poll” conducted Sept. 26-27 found Brown leading Husted 45.5% to 41.6% among likely voters, narrowing to 46.3% to 42.6% when leaners are included. Undecided likely voters broke slightly toward Husted, a sign the race is far from settled.
“Our poll shows a close race with time running out for Republicans to make up lost ground,” said poll director Rich Baris. “He is a familiar populist and strong candidate in a cycle that continues to deteriorate for the GOP.”
Even so, Brown’s narrow polling edge runs against Ohio’s recent history, where Democratic fundraising leads have not translated into victories. In 2024, Republican groups outspent Democrats by more than $75 million even as Brown more than tripled Moreno’s spending.
What to Watch
Early in-person and absentee voting begins Oct. 6, following an Oct. 5 registration deadline, and the compressed calendar gives both campaigns little room to shift the fundamentals. The central question is whether rank-and-file union members follow their leadership’s endorsements — or their own partisan instincts.
If Brown wins, it would signal that Democrats can rebuild a blue-collar coalition even in red-trending states and would boost their odds of holding the Senate. If he loses, it would suggest Ohio has slipped out of reach and deepen Democratic doubts about the limits of economic populism.