China Sets 2030 Target for Rehabilitation Therapists
China has set a goal of reaching 1.6 rehabilitation therapists and 0.7 rehabilitation physicians per 10,000 people by 2030, part of a sweeping national plan to expand rehabilitation and nursing care capacity as the country’s population ages rapidly. The plan, jointly issued by the National Health Commission (NHC) and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), was approved by the State Council and published on October 8.
A Response to Deepening Population Aging
The policy, titled the “Medical Rehabilitation and Nursing Capacity Expansion and Enhancement Project Implementation Plan,” is framed as a direct response to China’s demographic trajectory. According to the official NHC policy interpretation, public demand for rehabilitation and nursing care has grown steadily, while “overall insufficient service supply, insufficiently coherent service system, and low service capacity” have become increasingly prominent problems.
The scale of the challenge is significant. As China News Service reported, the plan was approved by the State Council and sets out 6 parts and 13 task measures. The plan’s guiding theme is summarized in four principles: “expansion, quality improvement, balance, and continuity,” with an emphasis on grassroots-level services.
The 2030 Targets
Beyond the headline therapist target, the plan sets several measurable goals for 2030, as reported by People’s Daily:
- A rehabilitation and nursing bed capacity of approximately 0.48 beds per 1,000 people;
- Rehabilitation physicians at 0.7 per 10,000 people;
- At least one public rehabilitation hospital and nursing home in cities with large populations, deeper aging, and greater care demand.
The plan directs national priority support toward prefecture-level and above cities with an urban resident population exceeding 1 million, according to Xinhua.
Building the Workforce and the System
A central component of the plan is talent development. It calls for adjusting rehabilitation and nursing-related majors at universities and vocational colleges, reasonably expanding enrollment, and improving job-market alignment. The plan prioritizes placing rehabilitation-skilled personnel in key departments such as critical care, orthopedics and bone injury, and neurology.
During China’s “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the policy supports building at least one rehabilitation or nursing clinical key specialty per province, with provincial and municipal clinical specialty construction tilted toward rehabilitation and nursing.
The plan also emphasizes a network that extends beyond hospitals. As researcher Hao Xiaoning of the NHC Health Development Research Center told Xinhua via 21jingji, the project should “solidify the grassroots service network base,” building a diversified system that includes rehabilitation medicine, long-term care, community and home-based care, and remote rehabilitation guidance.
Technology and Industry as Cornerstones
The plan places notable weight on digital and industrial development. It calls for developing “AI + rehabilitation nursing” services that use rehabilitation robots and smart wearable devices for multi-dimensional data monitoring, intelligent rehabilitation training, and health management, Xinhua reported. It also envisions data sharing across the full care continuum—from functional assessment and plan-making to rehabilitation training and follow-up—by relying on regional health information platforms.
The policy also reaches into industrial policy, calling for strengthening the research, development, and application of innovative products and growing the broader rehabilitation and nursing industry.
Zhang Rui, secretary-general of the Pharmaceutical Industry AI Innovation Alliance, told Xinhua via 21jingji that the key to improving rehabilitation nursing through technology is to “deeply match smart rehabilitation technology with grassroots service needs” while growing the industrial chain ecosystem. Sound pricing, payment, and talent mechanisms, she said, “will help stimulate all parties’ initiative.”
Rooted in a Longer Policy Timeline
The plan did not emerge in isolation. According to China’s State Council, it was formally approved via document Guohan [2026] No. 99, dated September 28 and publicly released on September 29. The initiative builds on a directive from General Secretary Xi Jinping at the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference to expand rehabilitation, nursing, and hospice care services, and Premier Li Qiang’s deployment of the project in the 2026 Government Work Report.
Earlier steps in the timeline include a State Council executive meeting on September 18 that was interpreted as emphasizing grassroots service building. The plan’s approval marks the culmination of a year-long policy push.
Analysis and Implications
China’s rehabilitation and nursing sector has long suffered from structural shortages. The new 2030 target of 1.6 rehabilitation therapists per 10,000 people represents a substantial increase over the 1.2 figure that a 2021 national policy aimed to reach by 2025, indicating that Beijing is deliberately shifting emphasis toward therapists rather than physicians.
The plan’s breadth is also notable. By bundling workforce development, infrastructure, technology, pricing reform, and industrial policy into a single framework, it treats rehabilitation and nursing not merely as a clinical service but as a strategic response to population aging—a challenge that will only intensify. With roughly 320 million people aged 60 and over, and about 35 million disabled elderly requiring long-term care, the demand-side pressure is formidable.
Several details, however, remain to be specified. The plan’s language on a “multi-payer system” and its integration with long-term care insurance—which already covers some 320 million people—leaves key financing questions open. How provinces will allocate resources and which will move fastest also remains unclear.
What’s Next
The NHC and NDRC said they will work with relevant departments to steadily implement the plan’s tasks. The policy encourages localities with capacity to deepen reform in areas such as medical insurance payment and talent-training incentives.
For China, the measure will be whether ambitious targets translate into accessible care—particularly for the elderly in communities and at home, beyond the hospital walls where much of the country’s rehabilitation capacity has historically been concentrated. The coming “15th Five-Year Plan” period will be the critical test.