Flanders Faces a ‘Child Shortage’ as Pupils Fall Again

For the second year in a row, the number of pupils in Flemish schools has fallen, according to the annual October count (oktobertelling). The decline is driven by a birth rate that has been sliding since around 2011, and it has prompted education leaders to warn of closures, funding strain and a coming scramble for students across Flanders.

The figures, reported by VRT NWS, show that Flanders is moving from the teacher shortage (lerarentekort) that has dominated education debate for years to what commentators are now calling a “child shortage” (kinderentekort).

A Second Year of Decline

In total, 1,188,831 pupils are enrolled in Flemish schools this year. Katholiek Onderwijs Vlaanderen, the largest network, counts 745,057 pupils, down 4,340 from 749,397 a year earlier and a market share of roughly 62.7 percent. The municipal and city school network, OVSG, started the September term with 173,842 pupils, down from 176,592.

By level, the Catholic network saw declines of 0.33 percent in nursery, 0.93 percent in primary and 0.41 percent in secondary education. The first overall decline in about two decades occurred in 2025, and this year’s count confirms it as a trend rather than a blip.

“We are seeing a gradual decline in birth rates. That means we now have to think about a smart way to organise the education offering in the future,” said Bruno Vanobbergen, director-general of Katholiek Onderwijs Vlaanderen.

The Root Cause: Fewer Births

Birth statistics from Statistiek Vlaanderen underscore the demographic shift. In 2025 there were nearly 62,300 births in the Flemish Region, about 500 more than in 2024 but 7,800 fewer — a fall of 11 percent — than in the peak year of 2010. Since 2010, the region’s gross birth rate has followed a downward trend, and since 2020 deaths have outnumbered births every year except 2021.

The consequences are now increasingly visible in classrooms. Vanobbergen framed the shift bluntly: on top of the ageing of the population, Flanders is now also experiencing a “de-greening” (ontgroening).

Funding Pressure and Calls for Scale

Because schools are funded per pupil, falling enrolment feeds through to budgets quickly, while fixed costs do not fall proportionally. “Forty to 50 fewer pupils does not mean that the costs for infrastructure or energy fall to the same degree,” Vanobbergen said.

He called for schools to pool resources at a regional or municipal level. “Today it is every school for itself when it comes to staying open,” he said, adding that stronger collaboration could ensure quality education survives even in rural areas. Regional data illustrate the unevenness of the decline: the birth rate in the Westhoek has fallen by about 15 percent over 10 to 12 years, and in Hasselt by roughly 20 percent over 12 years.

Empty Seats — and Overflowing Ones

The contraction is not evenly distributed. A capacity monitor by KU Leuven projects a surplus of about 40,000 primary-school places by 2030, largely as a result of falling birth rates. Yet shortages persist in specific urban areas — Mechelen, Vilvoorde, Grimbergen, Roeselare, Sint-Pieters-Leeuw and Lier — where large capacity gaps are expected.

The community education network GO! is an outlier: it grew by 1,307 pupils to 226,793, the only major network to expand. “The fact that more pupils and parents are choosing GO! in a period of demographic shrinkage confirms the trust in our education,” said its delegated director, Koen Pelleriaux. He noted, however, that 6,430 pupils could not get a place at their preferred GO! school, showing that demand still outstrips supply in some regions.

Closures Begin

School closures are no longer hypothetical. In April, the Wij-Land primary school in Diksmuide announced a gradual phase-down, with full closure set for 1 September 2027. Basisschool De Graankorrel in Aarschot faces the risk of closing in June 2027, where an action committee is trying to reverse the decision, and ‘t Nestje in Lapscheure, near Damme, has already ceased operating. The reason in each case is the same: too few pupils.

Writing in HLN, pedagogue Pedro De Bruyckere of Utrecht University warned that the competition for pupils “can become fierce in some places.” Forecasts cited by HLN project 31,876 fewer pupils in Catholic secondary education over the next ten years.

De Bruyckere described the decline as likely to unfold in waves rather than a straight line — the children of the around-2008 baby boom will eventually have children of their own, producing a new peak. “Actually we are going to see a constant erosion,” he said, adding that school closures will spark “emotionally charged debates” about whether neighbourhoods can stay vibrant without a school.

Vanobbergen said it is hard to estimate how many more schools will close. “We now see that schools do indeed have to close, and sometimes that has to happen quickly. Often those schools have already been in the danger zone for a while,” he said, calling for a “helicopter view” of what a city or region actually needs.

The Teacher Shortage Won’t Disappear

A smaller pupil population does not automatically resolve Flanders’ teacher shortage. Vanobbergen stressed that shortages vary sharply by region and by subject — mathematics and French among them — and will not simply vanish because there are fewer pupils.

Some observers see an opportunity. De Bruyckere argued that reduced pressure could be a “tremendous opportunity” to advance inclusive education, given that teachers will still be needed. But the broader trajectory points to a sustained squeeze: fewer children, emptier schools and harder choices about which ones can stay open.

What to Watch

The coming months will test how Flemish policymakers and school boards respond. The pressure is not uniform: the KU Leuven capacity monitor projects a region-wide surplus of roughly 40,000 primary-school places by 2030, even as a secondary-school place shortage looms in Vlaams-Brabant, Oost-Vlaanderen, West-Vlaanderen and Antwerpen. Meanwhile, acute shortages are expected in municipalities such as Mechelen, Vilvoorde, Grimbergen, Roeselare, Sint-Pieters-Leeuw and Lier. The debate is shifting from whether to consolidate to how — and who decides. For now, the October count makes one thing clear: the era of shrinking classrooms has begun, and it is reshaping not just schools but the communities around them.