Democrat Fights to Hold Key Swing District in Washington

One of the nation’s most closely watched congressional races is unfolding in southwest Washington, where two-term Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is fighting to defend her seat against Republican state Sen. John Braun. The contest for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District is among roughly 22 House races nationally rated a “toss-up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and its outcome could help decide which party controls the chamber next year.

The district is a political microcosm: a mix of urban, industrial and rural communities, with inland and coastal areas that have voted for President Trump three times by single-digit margins — even as they sent Gluesenkamp Perez to Congress. As NPR reported, the race carries high stakes for both parties. Democrats likely need Gluesenkamp Perez to hold the seat to preserve any hope of a House majority, while Republicans need Braun to win to keep power and advance Trump’s agenda.

A District That Resists Labels

Washington’s 3rd District prides itself on its independence. A plurality of likely voters — 35% — describe themselves as independent rather than aligned with either major party, according to polling conducted by DHM Research for OPB. The seat has swung between the parties for decades. It was held by Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler until she was ousted in the 2022 primary after voting to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Gluesenkamp Perez then flipped the seat blue in an upset, defeating Republican Joe Kent, and won a 2024 rematch 51.7% to 47.9%.

“We don’t vote down the ballot one way or the other,” Erik Halvorson, the mayor of Longview, Wash., told NPR. “Trump can win the city, but Marie Gluesenkamp Perez can win the city as well on the same ballot. So it’s really person specific.”

Both candidates are relative moderates within their parties and both own small businesses — facts that have made the contest unusually personality-driven. Gluesenkamp Perez, a former co-owner of an auto repair shop, is co-chair of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition. Braun is the Republican minority leader in the Washington State Senate, a retired U.S. Navy submarine captain and president of the family-owned emergency vehicle manufacturer Braun Northwest.

A Dead Heat in the Polls

The race could hardly be tighter. The OPB/DHM Research poll of 543 likely voters, conducted Sept. 17–27, found Braun leading Gluesenkamp Perez 46% to 44%, with 11% unsure — a difference inside the survey’s 4.2% margin of error. When pollsters pressed undecided voters, Braun held a 48% to 47% edge, with 5% still unsure.

“It’s a closely contested district independent of the candidates or the political environment,” John Horvick, a senior vice president at DHM Research, told OPB. He described two competing forces: Braun is a “more establishment” candidate than Kent, while the national environment in 2026 favors Democrats amid inflation and rising gas prices. “I feel like these two forces are bumping up against each other…resulting in what looks like it’ll be a very close election,” Horvick said.

Money has poured into the district. No Going Back PAC Inc., a new super PAC tied to Trump, had spent $1.7 million in the race, while total outside spending by Democratic groups was $354,000 as of Sept. 30. “Grassroots-funded candidates like Marie can’t match that kind of spending,” campaign manager Tim Gowan said. “We’re seeing the same pattern in battleground districts across the country, where polls are tightening under a wave of nearly unlimited outside money.”

Tariffs, Trade and the Local Economy

If the race turns on pocketbook concerns, both candidates say they hear the same anxiety. The OPB poll found that the economy and cost of living ranked as the top issues for voters — 100% rated them important — followed by healthcare and homelessness at 89%. Yet 88% of likely voters said they had little or no confidence that Congress would make progress on their priorities.

Tariffs cut across the district in distinctive ways. Braun’s manufacturing business has absorbed higher material costs that are passed on to the cities and municipalities that buy his ambulances and fire trucks. On the coast, international trade has been especially painful. “We’ve lost over 50% of our international sales due to the current political climate between us and Asian countries,” Kathleen Nisbet, owner of Goose Point Oysters in Bay Center, Wash., told NPR.

Braun has signaled his independence from Trump on the issue. “There are some appropriate uses for tariffs. But kind of the indiscriminate use, the broad use, the blanketed use, just that doesn’t work,” he said. “We need to be a little more thoughtful on tariff policy.”

Splitting With the Base

Gluesenkamp Perez has drawn fire from her own party’s left over two high-profile votes: support for a Republican-sponsored bill requiring parental consent if a public school student wants to go by a different name or gender in class, and for the SAVE Act, a voter identification measure.

“I do not support noncitizens voting in American elections — and that’s common sense to folks in Southwest Washington,” she said in an April statement. “Voting in our nation’s elections is a sacred right belonging only to American citizens, and my vote for the SAVE Act reflects that principle.”

The votes exposed her vulnerability with the Democratic base. Progressive activists ran a primary challenger against her — a signal of frustration in Clark County, the district’s most populous county and one she has consistently won. “Nobody is happy with Marie, but they’re not voting for John. So they’re voting their conscience,” Gretchen Hoyt, a fourth-generation Vancouver resident, told NPR. “It feels like the lesser of two evils.”

The two candidates also split sharply on foreign policy at their first debate. “I have voted against the president’s war six times,” Gluesenkamp Perez said of the conflict with Iran. “This war has been a disaster for our families at home, for our military families, for our geopolitical security.” Braun struck a more cautious note: “We cannot extend this war without a clear ending point, and we don’t have that right now,” he said during the Oct. 7 debate.

What to Watch

The race remains a bellwether for the broader midterm environment, where an anti-incumbency mood collides with a president of the opposing party facing middling approval. Braun must contend with the historical tendency of midterms to serve as a referendum on the party in power; Gluesenkamp Perez must overcome an anti-incumbent tide while repairing her standing with parts of the Democratic coalition.

A second debate is scheduled for Oct. 13 on KATU, and voters head to the polls on Nov. 3. Given the poll’s narrow margin and the district’s history of ticket-splitting, both parties are treating every vote as decisive.

“We have historically valued representatives that understand our economy and our struggles,” Ilwaco councilman Matt Lessnau told NPR. “We have a very low tolerance for bulls***.”

For a district that has defied easy partisan categorization for years, the question is whether its voters will once again chart their own course — or break with a pattern that has made Washington’s 3rd one of the few places where neither party can take anything for granted.