De Roover (N-VA): No ‘Magic Formula’ to Fix Belgium’s Budget
Belgium’s federal government failed for a second consecutive year to deliver its traditional policy statement to Parliament on Tuesday, as coalition partners remained deadlocked over how to close a €10 billion budget gap. Peter De Roover, the N-VA Speaker of the Chamber of Representatives, dismissed the idea that an overlooked solution exists, saying: “With all respect, the opposition too has only a handful of options to find those 10 billion euros. To now claim that somewhere there is still a magic formula that everyone has forgotten? That, I think, is a bit of fantasy.”
Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA) cancelled the so-called “State of the Union” address scheduled for Tuesday, with his office confirming that no budget agreement had been reached within the government.
Context: A Coalition Under Strain
The standoff centres on the “Arizona coalition” that took office under De Wever after the June 2024 elections, uniting five parties: N-VA, CD&V and Vooruit on the Flemish side, alongside the francophone MR and Les Engagés. The government must find €10 billion to consolidate public finances by 2029.
At the heart of the dispute is a proposed VAT reform. Under the plan, the top rate would rise from 21% to 22%, while the reduced 6% and 12% rates would be merged into a single 9% rate, according to 7sur7. The francophone liberal MR and its president, Georges-Louis Bouchez, have categorically refused any VAT increase, arguing it would erode purchasing power, fuel inflation and undermine competitiveness. The party insists that at most €1 billion—one-ninth of the total effort—should come from new revenue, with the rest from savings and reforms.
De Roover defended the government’s silence ahead of Tuesday’s session. “The fewer public statements are made, the more chance that no additional red lines are drawn,” he told VRT NWS De Ochtend, while stressing that a debate between all parliamentary groups would take place in the afternoon regardless. “That’s how it should be.”
A Familiar Deadlock
The impasse echoes last year’s crisis, when Belgium began 2026 under “provisional twelfths”—an emergency mechanism that caps monthly spending at one-twelfth of the previous year’s budget. The technique, set out in articles 55-58 of the 2003 law on the federal budget, is normally reserved for caretaker governments; applying it to a fully empowered administration is widely regarded as an embarrassment.
De Wever’s office has ruled that scenario out for 2027, warning that “given the seriousness of the budgetary situation and developments on the financial markets, a scenario of provisional twelfths is not an option.” The prime minister, who has argued that “in Belgium reforms are possible, but often late and after a grotesque crisis,” is reportedly trying to isolate the MR, a move reported by several Belgian outlets.
The pressure is not confined to party politics. Late last week, roughly 60,000 people marched in Brussels for climate action, while trade unions held a national day of protest against the government’s savings plans.
Analysis: Little Room to Manoeuvre
De Roover’s blunt assessment reflects a hard arithmetic reality. Belgium has one of the highest public spending levels in the EU, and Eurostat figures cited by analysts put government revenue near 50% of GDP against expenditure of about 54.5%—a structural gap that international institutions have long urged the country to close by shifting taxes from labour toward consumption.
Yet each route carries political costs. Economists note that Belgium’s automatic wage indexation largely offsets the purchasing-power hit of a VAT rise, undercutting one of the MR’s central arguments. But finding the money instead through savings on healthcare, long-term sick leave or the federal growth norm would run into resistance from other coalition partners.
Adding to the urgency, the US rating agency Moody’s opted not to downgrade Belgium’s credit rating—a temporary reprieve. National Bank and Debt Agency figures earlier in the week warned of a looming “snowball” effect on interest payments by 2029, in which borrowing would serve mainly to service existing debt.
What’s Next
The immediate deadline is the end of this month. To avoid an emergency budget for 2027, the budget must reach Parliament by early November, since the parliamentary process takes roughly six to eight weeks. De Wever has continued holding talks with coalition partners in an effort to break the deadlock.
Opposition parties were quick to seize on the delay. Vlaams Belang’s Barbara Pas called it a “painful failure,” while Groen branded the postponement “irresponsible” and PVDA renewed its call for a wealth tax. De Roover, for his part, offered little comfort to those hoping for a fresh breakthrough—only the reminder that the options available are few, and that the coming days will test whether the coalition can summon the will to choose among them.