Kansas Senate Race Becomes a Toss-Up Test of Trump

A U.S. Senate race in Kansas that was once an afterthought for Republicans has become one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterms, emerging as a live test of how far President Trump’s unpopular second-term policies may drag down his party even in deep-red territory. The race between Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton and first-term Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is now rated a “toss-up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and recent polling shows a dead heat.

According to NPR, the state that President Trump carried by 16 points in 2024 is now grappling with the possibility that a Democrat could win a U.S. Senate seat there for the first time in nearly a century. Both parties have redirected tens of millions of dollars to the race in recent weeks, and the president announced on Oct. 13 that he would campaign in Wichita for Marshall and other Republicans on the ticket.

Context: A Century-Long Drought

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932; the last Democratic senator from the state left office in 1939. Yet the state has a long habit of splitting its ticket, and currently has a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, alongside Republican U.S. senators. Kelly is term-limited, and Republicans are hoping to retake the governor’s office even as they sweat the Senate race.

The sudden competitiveness of the Senate contest reflects how unpopular Trump’s second-term agenda has become with voters, particularly in typically Republican Midwestern states that have been disproportionately affected by rising fuel prices and tariffs, NPR reported.

The shift is part of a broader pattern. Six GOP-held Senate seats are now rated toss-ups, and North Carolina, once considered a hold for Republicans, is now seen as likely Democratic.

A Pastor and a Physician

Marshall, a former OB-GYN and close Trump ally, has sought to brand Hamilton as an out-of-touch liberal. Speaking to supporters, he called his opponent “the most radical liberal person that ever got through a primary in the state of Kansas,” warning that Hamilton would damage the state’s cattle, agriculture, and oil and gas industries.

Hamilton, the founding pastor of Church of the Resurrection, the largest United Methodist congregation in the country, has positioned himself as an “independent-minded Democrat” who can win in a state where only about a quarter of the population are Democrats.

“We’ve been trying to make clear in our commercials that a Kansas Democrat is a bit different than a New York Democrat or a Los Angeles Democrat, and not just a little — a lot different,” Hamilton told NPR. He has also touted endorsements from former Republican governors Mike Hayden and Bill Graves, and said Republican leaders have told him they are crossing over to vote for him because he represents “the character we’re looking for in somebody in leadership.”

His stump speeches frequently end with a nod to “The Wizard of Oz,” saying Washington needs more senators “who have a brain and use it, who have a heart and feel empathy with it, and who have courage and speak up because of it.”

A Month of Negative Headlines

Marshall has been dogged by a series of damaging stories. In September, a New York Times investigation revealed that he had sued more than 700 patients of his former OB-GYN practice over unpaid medical bills, leading to arrests for dozens who missed court dates. Hamilton’s campaign began airing ads about the lawsuits, and at a Kansas State Fair debate in September, Marshall was repeatedly shouted down by a crowd that chanted “Shame on you.”

Marshall’s lawyers sent a cease-and-desist letter to Hamilton’s campaign over the medical-bill ad, calling its implication defamatory.

The senator’s campaign also drew scrutiny after an attack ad claiming Hamilton “protected a pedophile” used images from two unrelated Kansas businesses without their knowledge or approval. The alleged abuse referenced in the ad did not occur at either property, according to the businesses and court documents. A campaign adviser said the image had been corrected, though one business owner said the original version was still airing days later.

The campaign faced further embarrassment over a viral social media post from the owner of a Hutchinson bakery, who said Marshall’s 2020 campaign ordered $678 worth of cookies and treats for a primary election watch party and never paid. Marshall’s campaign settled the bill on Oct. 12, paying the bakery $1,300 — nearly double what was owed.

“Do you know why I will never vote for Roger Marshall? Because six years ago, when I was a brand-new small business owner, his campaign ordered cookies and treats from my bakery,” owner Holly Thomas wrote on Facebook. “And I never got paid.” Even after being paid, Thomas said she still does not plan to vote for Marshall.

A campaign spokesperson, Brent Robertson, said the campaign had no idea how or why the 2020 bill went unpaid and paid it back, doubling the amount, as soon as it came to their attention.

The Governor’s Race and What’s Next

Even as the Senate race tightens, Republicans are optimistic about winning back the governor’s office. State Senate President Ty Masterson, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, leads in polls against Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher in a race that is less nationalized than the Senate contest.

On a weeklong bus tour across the state, Masterson kept his message focused on affordability and energy costs. “There’s never been a clearer choice than we’ve had in this election,” he said. “If you want working families to be able to afford to live… if you want safe communities, lower energy prices, i.e. then lower grocery prices — it’s not really a choice. You need to vote Republican.”

On the trail, Republican nominees pointed to Kelly’s frequent vetoes of the legislature’s Republican supermajority as a motivating factor for turning out voters.

With early voting underway and Election Day set for Nov. 3, the Kansas Senate contest remains one of the clearest gauges of the national political environment. If a Democrat can win a Senate seat in a state Trump carried by 16 points, it would signal deep headwinds for Republicans — and would mark the first Democratic Senate victory in Kansas in nearly a century. Both parties are now treating the state as a must-watch battleground, with the outcome likely to be read as a verdict on Trump’s second-term agenda.