Swing Voters’ Regret Reshapes Georgia Midterm Vote

A dozen Georgia voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 and then Donald Trump in 2024 gathered in two online focus groups this week, and the results revealed a striking reversal: 11 of the 12 said they were disappointed with Trump’s overall job performance, and 10 said they now regret voting for him, according to NPR.

Perhaps more consequential for the November midterms, seven of the 12 said Trump would influence them to vote for Democrats — a response the moderator described as new this year — and 10 said they intend to vote for incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia.

A New Kind of Swing

The focus groups, held Tuesday night as Georgia’s early voting began, are part of the Swing Voter Project run monthly by the messaging firm Engagious and the recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting. NPR is a partner in the project, and political correspondent Ashley Lopez has been sitting in on such sessions in battleground states since January.

The participants were not a representative sample — NPR explicitly notes that focus groups are not scientifically significant the way polls are. But the intensity of the sentiment, and the way it mapped onto concrete voting intentions, stood out.

Participants spoke on the condition that their last names not be used. Charles P., 43, a Democrat, offered a litany of grievances.

“I’ve been disappointed… I just don’t feel like there’s any positive to this administration at all,” he said. “Inflation has only gotten worse, there’ve been more wars. The tariffs haven’t done anything. It seems like we have more enemies now than ever. I just don’t see anything positive with his tenure.”

Richard A., 56, a Republican who has been out of work for 10 months, was even blunter.

“Food crisis, starting the war with Iran, inflation. ICE immigration has just torn families apart, has caused deaths. … It just seems like everything has gone downhill,” he said.

From ‘Looking at the Candidates’ to Looking at Trump

Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderates the sessions, said the shift in how voters weigh Trump’s role is a departure from prior months.

“In previous months, when we asked people whether President Trump would influence how they vote, they would say things like, ‘Well, I’m looking mainly at the candidates themselves,’ or ‘I’m looking at the overall sort of environment in the country,’” Thau told NPR. “This month, seven out of 12 said that he would influence them to vote for Democrats. And that was new.”

The defections cut across partisan self-identification. Karla S., 49, a Democrat, said her 2024 vote for Trump was a deliberate choice she now rejects outright.

“I did vote Republican for 2024. I made up my mind. I’ve been so disappointed that I’m just going to go straight and just do Democrat, Democrat, Democrat,” she said. “Because I’m so disappointed with how this administration has been doing.”

Independents in the group echoed the theme of wanting candidates who would check the president. Cedric, 41, said he wants “something different” from a candidate who will “stand up to him” rather than “go along with his policies.” Thomas M., 65, said a Democratic-run Congress “would [place] more controls… on Trump with people who are not afraid to stand up to him.”

Thau said some participants saw Democratic control of Congress as a path back to economic stability.

“There was some sense that Democrats could restore some semblance of order, and that they’d be able to control a bit of what the president is trying to do or has been doing, to the point where that might restore some of their confidence in the economy,” he said.

The sentiment was not universally pro-Democratic. Jennifer W., 43, a Republican, worried that if Republicans retain power, “Trump would have free rein.” Other respondents, Thau noted, believed the opposite — that a Republican Congress would simply defer to the president because “Republicans are afraid to stand up to him.”

A National Backdrop of Eroding Support

The Georgia findings arrive against a broader decline in Trump’s standing. His approval rating sits at 37% in polling averages — tied with George W. Bush in 2006 for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century, according to an NPR analysis by Domenico Montanaro. In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 53% said they strongly disapprove of Trump — the highest level that survey has recorded.

The Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of five to 15 seats for Democrats in the House, and six Senate seats have shifted toward Democrats since June, putting the chamber “within reach.” Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, and a CBS poll found 84% of Democrats and 82% of independents say they are definitely going to vote, versus 77% of Republicans.

Economic dissatisfaction is a central driver. An AP/NORC poll found 65% said higher-than-usual prices stem more from Trump’s policies than from factors outside his control, and only 26% approved of his handling of the economy. A September NBC News poll found respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy for only the second time in the Trump era.

The headwinds have been tied to inflation outpacing wages, the war with Iran driving up gas prices, tariffs raising costs, Fed rate hikes, and negative views of immigration enforcement.

The Georgia Stage

The focus groups land in one of the country’s most closely watched battlegrounds. Ossoff is seeking reelection against Republican Rep. Mike Collins, and early voting opened Oct. 13. Polling has shown Ossoff with a strong lead; a Big Data Poll put him at 55 to Collins’s 45, and recent Georgia surveys have shown split support heading into early voting, as USA Today reported.

Ossoff has framed Trump’s tariffs as having “crushed Georgia families” and “strangled” economic growth, themes that align with the cost-of-living complaints voiced in the focus groups. He and Collins debated on Oct. 9, clashing over tariffs, the SAVE Act, and voter ID.

This is not the first time these voters have soured. Earlier Georgia focus groups in 2026 captured mounting frustration over the Iran war and the cost of living, and a 2025 Axios report found swing voters rejecting Trump’s redistricting push once they understood it.

The shift tracks a longer arc: these voters chose Biden in 2020, switched to Trump in 2024, and now, with less than three weeks until Election Day, appear to be swinging again.

What to Watch

Focus groups measure depth of feeling, not breadth of support, and the 12 Georgia participants cannot be projected onto the electorate. But the combination of personal regret, explicit intent to back Democrats, and a national environment in which Trump’s approval is at historic pre-midterm lows suggests the swing that carried him to the White House may now be working against his party.

With early voting underway and Election Day set for Nov. 3, the question is whether the frustration captured in these conversations translates into ballots — and whether Georgia’s Senate race becomes an early indicator of how far the pendulum has moved.